Weekly Crypto Market Analysis – BTC & ETH Forecast (November 2025, Week 2)

The second week of November 2025 brought a harsh reminder of how quickly crypto markets can turn. After a strong October rally, both Bitcoin and Ethereum suffered sharp pullbacks as macro uncertainty, institutional outflows, and long-term holder distribution converged.

Bitcoin dropped 7.6% week-over-week to close near $94,500 on November 15. Ethereum fared even worse, sliding 9.5% to around $3,107. Total crypto market capitalization fell to roughly $3.26 trillion, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index crashed to 10, its lowest level since February 2025 and firmly in Extreme Fear territory.

Behind the price action, several drivers lined up:

• A less-dovish-than-expected Fed tone pushed back confidence in a December rate cut to roughly 50–60%.
• Long-term Bitcoin holders sold around 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days—the largest monthly distribution in more than a year.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped from strong inflows to net outflows, with nearly $800 million leaving over just two days.
• In DeFi, TVL dropped from $166B to ~ $131–136B, with Ethereum’s ecosystem alone losing about $10B in TVL.

This report walks through what happened in Week 2, how BTC and ETH now look technically and on-chain, and what scenarios traders should consider for the next 1–2 weeks. It is educational only and not financial advice—all trading decisions involve substantial risk.

Market Overview – Week 2 November 2025

Bitcoin started the week near $102,282, briefly pushed above $105,000 on November 10, and then reversed violently. The sharpest move came on November 14, when BTC slid from about $99,700 to $94,400 in a single session. Ethereum tracked the same path, spiking to around $3,576 mid-week before cascading down to $3,107.

Key market metrics:

• Total market cap: down to ~$3.26T, with a 2.8% drop in 24 hours on November 15.
• BTC dominance: steady around 59.4–59.9%, showing investors rotated out of altcoins rather than out of BTC specifically.
• ETH dominance: near 12.6%, but ETH underperformed BTC on the week (-9.5% vs -7.6%).
• Liquidations: over $1B in leveraged positions wiped out, as many traders were caught long into the drop.
• Funding rates: still slightly positive (0.0061–0.01% per 8h) but down sharply from early-month levels—bullish conviction is fading, not gone.

Macro and flows:

• The Fed kept rates at 3.75–4.00%, but Powell’s comments weren’t as dovish as markets wanted.
• The odds of a December rate cut fell from near-certain to a coin-flip, removing a key support for risk assets.
• 10-year U.S. yields hovered around 4.11%, high enough to keep pressure on “risk-on” assets like crypto.
• After a $471M inflow into BTC ETFs on November 12, flows reversed to –$314M on the 13th and –$463M on the 14th—net negative for the week.

Altcoins like XRP, SOL, and ADA saw double-digit losses, underlining that this was a system-wide de-risking, not a coin-specific story.

Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Analysis & Short-Term Forecast

Price Action & Key Levels

BTC shifted from a high-level consolidation into a decisive breakdown:

• Rejected near $106,000 resistance on November 10.
• Lost the psychological $100,000 level, turning prior support into resistance.
• Sold off into the $94,000–96,000 zone—its lowest area since May 2025.

Key zones to watch:

• Support:
  • $94,000–96,000 – current battleground; confluence of prior May support and important Fibonacci retracement.
  • $92,000 – next line in the sand; a break could accelerate downside.
  • $84,000–86,000 – deeper support, roughly a 30% correction from October’s ~$126K high.
• Resistance:
  • $100,000–101,000 – first major ceiling if price bounces.
  • $104,000–107,000 – breakdown zone and 50-day MA cluster.
  • $109,000–110,000 – 200-day MA; reclaiming this would be needed to reset the mid-term trend.

Technical & Derivatives Snapshot

• RSI (daily): mid-30s to low-40s—weak but not yet “capitulation” oversold.
• MACD: bearish cross with negative histogram; momentum still points down.
• Moving averages: price trades below the 20, 50, and 200-day MAs, a textbook downtrend alignment.
• Bollinger Bands: expanding on the drop, confirming a volatility breakout to the downside.
• Volume: heavy on red days, lighter on bounces → sellers currently have more conviction.
• Futures open interest: down from ~$94B to $67–68B, signaling large-scale deleveraging rather than new aggressive short positions.
• Funding: mildly positive but compressing—longs pay a small premium, yet enthusiasm has cooled.

BTC Scenarios for the Next 1–2 Weeks

Bullish (~30–35% probability)
BTC holds $94–96K, quickly reclaims $100K, and pushes toward $104–107K as:

• Fed communication turns more dovish or inflation data softens.
• ETF flows stabilize and flip back to net inflows.
• On-chain data shows renewed accumulation from long-term holders.
• RSI climbs back above 50 and MACD begins flattening.

Bearish (~40–45% probability)
BTC loses $94K and especially $92K, sliding into the $84–86K zone amid:

• Persistently hawkish Fed rhetoric or hotter-than-expected data.
• Continued long-term holder distribution and ETF outflows.
• Funding turning negative and open interest sliding further as losses mount.

Sideways / Consolidation (~25–30% probability)
BTC chops between $92K–100K, letting indicators reset:

• RSI hovers 40–50.
• MACD drifts toward the zero line.
• Price oscillates around short-term MAs while traders wait for the next macro catalyst.

Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Analysis & Short-Term Forecast

Price Action & Key Levels

ETH underperformed BTC with a 9.5% weekly slide, moving from roughly $3,434 down to $3,107.

Important levels:

• Support:
  • $3,100–3,200 – current zone; breaking cleanly below opens the door to…
  • $3,000 – critical psychological support, packed with options interest.
  • $2,800–2,900 – next downside target if $3K fails.
• Resistance:
  • $3,300–3,400 – broken support now turned resistance.
  • $3,500–3,600 – mid-range resistance and recent swing highs.
  • $3,750–3,900 – major resistance near the 50-day MA and top of the recent range.
  • ETH currently sits below the 200-day MA (~$3,363), confirming a bearish structure.

Technical & DeFi / On-Chain Context

• RSI (daily): around 32–33, pushing into oversold territory.
• MACD: firmly bearish with no clear sign of momentum exhaustion yet.
• Moving averages: price is below the 20, 50 and 200-day MAs; any bounce faces thick overhead resistance.

On-chain & DeFi:

• Ethereum DeFi TVL fell from about $85B to $74B—its lowest level since July.
• Major protocols like Aave, Lido, EigenLayer, and Ethena all saw double-digit TVL drops, indicating broad stress.
• L2s (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) remain active, but low mainnet fees mean ETH burn has slowed, reducing deflationary support.
• ETH staking continues to grow (>25.6M ETH staked), yet recent ETH ETF outflows (~$500M) show institutions scaling back exposure.

ETH Scenarios for the Next 1–2 Weeks

Bullish (~25–30% probability)
ETH holds $3,100–3,200, defends $3,000, and grinds back toward $3,500–3,600 if:

• ETH/BTC stabilizes or strengthens.
• DeFi TVL stops bleeding and key protocols show renewed inflows.
• A positive catalyst arrives (upgrade progress, institutional announcement).

Bearish (~45–50% probability)
ETH loses $3,100, breaks $3,000, and sells off toward $2,800–2,900 under:

• Ongoing DeFi outflows or another major hack.
• Continued ETF redemptions and narrative shift away from ETH.
• ETH/BTC making new lows as capital rotates to BTC.

Sideways (~20–25% probability)
ETH ranges between $3,000–3,400, consolidating around the 200-day MA while traders wait on macro and ecosystem signals.

BTC vs ETH: Relative Strength & Strategy Notes

In Week 2, ETH lagged BTC—–9.5% vs –7.6%, with the ETH/BTC pair slipping from ~0.0337 to ~0.0329. That confirms a short-term trend of investors favoring BTC’s relative safety over ETH’s higher beta.

When BTC tends to be favored:

• Macro is the dominant driver, uncertainty is high, and investors want the most liquid, “simplest” crypto exposure.
• Institutional flows prioritize Bitcoin ETFs and “digital gold” narratives.

When ETH tends to shine:

• Risk appetite is strong and the focus shifts to DeFi growth, L2 adoption, and protocol upgrades.
• TVL expands, protocol revenues grow, and staking yields look attractive relative to traditional assets.

A practical framework many investors use:

• Defensive regime: 65–75% BTC, 25–35% ETH.
• Neutral: 50–60% BTC, 40–50% ETH.
• Aggressive bull: 40% BTC, 60%+ ETH.

Given Week 2’s conditions—extreme fear, macro uncertainty, DeFi stress—the near-term data argues for a moderate BTC overweight, while keeping a smaller ETH allocation for upside optionality.

Key Risks & What to Watch in Week 3

Week 3 (November 16–22) could determine whether this correction stabilizes or deepens.

Macro & Rates

• Fed speakers and upcoming inflation prints (CPI/PCE) will heavily influence December rate-cut odds.
• Watch 10-year yields: a move above 4.25–4.30% could pressure risk assets; a drift below 4.0% would be a relief.

Flows & On-Chain

• BTC ETF flows: sustained net outflows would be bearish; a pivot back to steady inflows could mark a local bottoming process.
• Long-term holder behavior: if distribution slows and accumulation resumes, downside risk diminishes.
• DeFi TVL & security: more exploits or TVL drops on Ethereum would weigh on ETH sentiment.

Key price levels

• BTC: support at $94–96K, then $92K; resistance at $100–101K and $104–107K.
• ETH: support at $3,100–3,200, then $3,000; resistance at $3,300–3,400 and $3,600–3,750.

Technical triggers

• Daily RSI moving back above 50 and MACD flattening/turning positive would be early signs of a trend shift.
• A high-volume bounce from support with strong closes near daily highs would also be notable.

Conclusion

Week 2 of November 2025 erased a large chunk of October’s gains and reminded traders that crypto remains tightly linked to macro conditions and institutional flows.

• BTC closed the week down 7.6% at $94,500, having broken below the key $100K level and now battling to hold support above $94–96K.
• ETH lost 9.5% to finish near $3,107, with the crucial $3,000 handle looming just below.

Technical structures for both majors have turned bearish, on-chain data shows meaningful distribution from sophisticated holders, and ETF flows have swung negative. At the same time, Extreme Fear readings, oversold momentum, and a 28% drop in derivatives open interest hint that much of the froth has already been washed out.

For the next 1–2 weeks, the base case remains continued caution:

• BTC: mild bias toward further downside or choppy consolidation between $92K–100K.
• ETH: elevated risk of retesting or temporarily breaking $3,000 unless DeFi and ETF flows stabilize.

For long-term investors, this environment may justify gradual dollar-cost averaging with a bias toward BTC. For active traders, protecting capital, respecting key levels, and avoiding over-leverage is more important than trying to nail exact bottoms.

Disclaimer

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other professional advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and speculative. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all digital assets can experience rapid and severe price movements that may result in partial or total loss of capital.

All price levels, scenarios, and probability estimates in this report are based on data available as of November 15, 2025 and represent the author’s personal opinions, not guarantees of future performance. Market conditions can change quickly due to macroeconomic events, regulatory developments, technical factors, or unforeseen news.

Before making any investment or trading decision, you should conduct your own research, consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. aicryptobrief.com and the author accept no responsibility for any losses arising from the use of this information.