Weekly Crypto Market Analysis – November 2025 | BTC & ETH Forecast

The crypto market enters the second week of November under intense pressure, as the U.S. government shutdown and macro uncertainty dominate sentiment. Bitcoin and Ethereum face their worst combined performance in months, with total liquidations exceeding $2.6 billion from spot ETFs alone. Despite these headwinds, the crypto market cap remains resilient above $3.6 trillion, and historical November seasonality suggests a potential recovery window for savvy traders.

Market Sentiment: Bearish with contrarian opportunities. The Fear & Greed Index hovers around 23-27 (Extreme Fear territory), the lowest levels since April 2025. While institutional capital continues to exit spot ETFs, Solana and emerging Layer 1 chains show surprising strength, signaling a potential flight to efficiency over valuation. Bitcoin’s repeated tests of the $102,000 support may prove to be capitulation zones rather than the start of a deeper bear trap.

Key Macro Backdrop: A prolonged U.S. government shutdown (forecast to extend through Thanksgiving or December 1) has injected uncertainty into both equities and digital assets. Fed Chair Powell’s cautious messaging killed hopes of additional rate cuts, dampening the “soft landing” narrative that fueled October’s momentum.

1. Weekly Highlights: Top News & Developments

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Extend to Six Consecutive Days

Impact: Bearish Short-Term | Historical Context Bullish
Data: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.6 billion in cumulative outflows from October 29 through November 6, with BlackRock’s IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) leading withdrawals at $375 million alone on November 5. This marks the second-largest outflow streak in Bitcoin ETF history, yet asset under management (AUM) for Bitcoin ETFs still exceeds $139 billion, representing approximately 6.7% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

Analysis: While the headline appears bearish, the underlying story is nuanced. Smaller funds like Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB posted positive inflows during this period, suggesting that capital is rotating rather than exiting entirely. The concentration of outflows in IBIT—a fund that has been the primary vehicle for retail and smaller institutional flows—indicates profit-taking from short-term players rather than long-term institutional abandonment.

SEC’s New Crypto-Friendly Framework Takes Shape

Positive Development for Industry
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins launched “Project Crypto” to establish a fit-for-purpose regulatory framework for digital assets. Key announcements include:

• Approval for in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETPs (expanding beyond cash-only models)
• Dissolution of the former crypto enforcement unit and launch of a dedicated Crypto Task Force
• Five industry roundtables addressing custody, staking, DeFi, and tokenization
• Dismissal of nearly all pending SEC enforcement cases from the prior administration

Implication: This signals a long-term tailwind for crypto adoption, though near-term price action will remain driven by macro risk appetite rather than regulatory clarity.

U.S. Government Shutdown Extends; Treasury Liquidity Operations Resume

Critical for Market Stability
The Federal Reserve injected $29.4 billion in overnight repo liquidity on November 4—the largest operation since 2020. While not a return to quantitative easing, this move signals Fed attentiveness to short-term lending stress. The U.S. government shutdown, now on track to last 61 days (vs. historical average of 8 days), has drained Treasury liquidity and contributed to the flight to USD-denominated stablecoins.

BlackRock Launches Bitcoin ETF in Australia

Institutional Expansion Continues
BlackRock announced plans to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF in Australia, expanding its global footprint despite short-term redemptions in U.S. markets. This signals sustained institutional appetite for regulated exposure outside North America.

DeFi TVL Plummets 7.39% Amid Security Incidents

Risk Contagion Alert
Total DeFi TVL fell below $140 billion (down to $138.9 billion), a single-day decline of 7.39%. Notable incidents included:

• Moonwell: Over $1 million in losses due to an offline Oracle Machine attack
• Stream Finance: Suspended withdrawals after revealing $93 million in losses from fund management errors
• XUSD stablecoin: Severe de-pegging event

Silver Lining: Pendle and ZKsync announced new initiatives (highest-ever historical income/volume and a staking rewards program, respectively), demonstrating that protocols with robust fundamentals are weathering the storm. Leading DeFi protocols (Aave, Lido, EigenLayer) saw controlled outflows in the 4-6% range, suggesting institutional capital remains cautiously deployed.

Trump Administration Confirms End of Crypto Crackdown

Pro-Crypto Policy Shift
The White House officially confirmed that the Trump administration has ended the Biden administration’s aggressive crackdown on the crypto industry. This policy reversal removes a major regulatory overhang and positions digital assets more favorably for 2026 business planning.

2. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

Current Price & Technical Setup

As of November 6, 2025: Bitcoin trades in a narrow range between $102,359 and $104,808, having failed multiple times to reclaim the critical $107,000-$108,000 zone that served as resistance mid-October.

Support Levels:

• Primary: $102,359 (hourly chart key level)
• Secondary: $102,000 (psychological)
• Tertiary: $99,891 (weekly support)
• Deep Support: $98,876 (major support, gap-fill zone)

Resistance Levels:

• Immediate: $104,808 (daily resistance)
• Major: $106,183 (multi-week resistance)
• Structural: $107,709 (all-time high test zone)

Technical Indicators & Momentum

1-Day Timeframe:

• Trend: Bearish with lower highs and lower lows evident since October 28
• Volume: Declining on rallies, confirming weak buying interest
• RSI: Trading near oversold territory (around 35-40), though not yet at extreme levels (<30)
• MACD: Negative histogram with histogram bars shrinking, signaling fading bearish momentum
• Moving Averages: Price trading below both 10-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA), confirming bearish structure

4-Hour Chart:

• Hourly support at $102,359 is critical; a breakdown would target $101,156 and extend toward the $99,891 zone
• Funding rates have normalized after liquidation events, but positioning remains defensive

On-Chain Insights & Macro Catalysts

Bitcoin’s Cost Basis vs. Current Price:
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin has not reclaimed the cost basis of top buyers since July 2025. This metric suggests repeat tests near $104,000 may be needed before conviction develops for a sustained rally. Additionally, Bitcoin’s dominance in the total crypto market has edged slightly higher (+0.04% this week), indicating a flight to safety amid altcoin weakness.

ETF Flows as a Sentiment Proxy:
The $2.6 billion exodus reflects short-term profit-taking and macro caution, not institutional abandonment. Smaller funds like Fidelity and Ark showing inflows suggests they are accumulating weakness, a bullish contrarian signal.

Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish Bias with Caution

Next 5-7 Days:
Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $102,000-$105,000 range while the market awaits:

1. Further Fed guidance or economic data (unemployment, CPI)
2. Resolution or extension updates on the U.S. government shutdown
3. Potential forced liquidations if support fails (opening the $92,000 CME gap)

Probability Matrix:

• 45%: Continued range consolidation, eventual breakout above $105,500 → targets $110,000-$115,000
• 35%: Breakdown below $102,000 → $92,000 test within 2-3 weeks
• 20%: Rapid reversal to $115,000-$120,000 if macro sentiment shifts (Fed pivot signals, shutdown ends)

🔑 Bitcoin Key Takeaway

“Bitcoin’s repeated tests of $102,000 are not capitulation—they’re price discovery. The Fear & Greed Index at 23 historically precedes major rallies (April 2025 precedent). Watch for a confirmed close above $104,808 on the daily chart; if it holds, the next target is $107,709. If $102,000 breaks, the $92,000 CME gap becomes the next major support.”

3. Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis

Current Price & Technical Setup

As of November 6, 2025: Ethereum trades near $3,630, down 8.8% this week and significantly below the monthly open of ~$3,866. The selling pressure is particularly pronounced given that November has historically been Ethereum’s strongest month (average gain of 6.93% over eight years, with a 47.4% surge in November 2024).

Support Levels:

• Immediate: $3,750 (daily support)
• Major: $3,853.62 (key psychological level)
• Next: $3,475 (if further breakdown occurs)

Resistance Levels:

• Immediate: $3,941.61 (major resistance)
• Secondary: $4,099.03 (secondary resistance)
• Target on Breakout: $4,200-$4,500 (if resistance clears)

Technical Indicators & Volume Analysis

Trend Structure:

• Pattern: Descending triangle forming with lower highs and stable lows
• Momentum: RSI at 43.48 (bearish but not extreme)
• MACD: Negative crossover, signaling continued selling pressure
• Volume: Decreasing on rallies, a classic bear signal indicating weak conviction from buyers

On-Chain Whale Activity (Positive Contrarian Signal):

• Wallets holding 1,000-10,000 ETH increased their holdings throughout October by 1.64 million ETH (valued at ~$6.4 billion)
• This accumulation occurred despite a 7% monthly decline, suggesting whales are front-running a recovery

Historical Seasonality vs. Current Sentiment

The November Paradox:
Ethereum shows a hidden bullish divergence on the 2-day chart—price formed a higher low on October 28 while RSI registered a lower low. This pattern historically precedes reversals. Combine this with whale accumulation and the result is a setup for a potential November rally, despite this week’s weakness.

Key Question: Will November 2024’s 47.4% rally repeat, or does the macro shutdown environment disrupt seasonal patterns?

Short-Term Outlook: Bullish Setup Despite Near-Term Weakness

Next 7-10 Days:
Ethereum is likely to consolidate above $3,750 while testing the $3,941.61 resistance. A confirmed break above $4,070 could trigger a short squeeze toward $4,300-$4,500.

Bull Case:

• Staking yields continue to support long-term holders
• L2 ecosystems (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) are showing growth despite macro headwinds
• Whale accumulation at weakness is often predictive of 4-8 week recoveries

Bear Case:

• Breakdown below $3,750 extends to $3,475 and validates the broader bearish pattern
• Macro caution (Fed messaging, shutdown extension) continues to suppress risk assets

💡 Ethereum Pro Tip

“Watch ETH’s weekly close above $3,941.61 closely. If ETH finishes the week there, the next week’s breakout above $4,070 becomes highly probable. Conversely, monitor ETH staking withdrawal flows on Lido; a spike in unstaking could indicate whale exit signals. L2 TVL trends on Arbitrum and Optimism will also matter—continued growth would validate the bullish narrative.”

4. Altcoin & Sector Snapshot

Layer 1 Dominance & Performance Divergence

This week revealed a stark divide between Layer 1 blockchains, with Solana emerging as the clear winner while Avalanche and other competitors faced headwinds.

Solana (SOL) – The Institutional Darling

Performance: Down ~10% from weekly highs but significantly outperforming BTC and ETH on a relative basis

Fundamentals Driving Strength:

• Institutional Inflows: Over $381 million in inflows from institutional players in October alone—exceeding combined inflows to all other altcoins
• Seasonal Strength: Historically, November averages 13.9% gains for SOL (median 27.5%)
• Network Activity: Solana’s DEX ecosystem (Jupiter, Marinade) continues to capture a disproportionate share of trading volume amid market volatility

Technical Setup:

• SOL is forming a bullish flag pattern near $198
• Resistance at $213 would confirm a breakout targeting $232 and higher
• Support holds near $175 (invalidation level)
• Prediction models suggest November range of $158.56-$167.14, offering a modest upside while downside is capped

Key Insight: While Bitcoin and Ethereum wrestle with macro concerns, Solana attracts capital seeking lower fees, faster throughput, and genuine MEV protection. The ecosystem’s focus on practical scalability resonates during periods of risk aversion.

Avalanche (AVAX) – Consolidation & Pressure

Performance: Down ~10-15% from October highs, trading near $16-$17

Headwinds:

• Network congestion during peak usage periods
• Developer migration toward more efficient chains (particularly Solana)
• Competition from upstart L1s (SUI, Cosmos ecosystem)

Positive Signals:

• AVAX daily active addresses surged 350% on November 6, suggesting renewed user interest
• Institutional adoption metrics remain strong (40-50M daily transactions)
• Analysts target $20-$22 resistance zones for a recovery move

Analyst View: AVAX remains a long-term play for DeFi and enterprise applications but faces near-term pressure. A break above $20 could reignite interest; conversely, a close below $15 would invalidate bullish scenarios.

DeFi Sector & Staking Protocols

Narrative Shift: Capital is concentrating in high-quality, audited protocols with transparent security practices. Aave, Lido, and EigenLayer saw controlled outflows (4-6%), while protocols with security incidents (Moonwell, Stream Finance) face contagion risk.

Top Performers:

• Pendle: Achieved highest historical income and trading volume amid the volatility
• ZKsync: Announced staking rewards program, signaling protocol maturation
• Jupiter (Solana): Jumped to #3 in protocol fees generation (Tether and Circle remain #1 and #2)

TVL Trend: Total DeFi TVL may dip further toward $130 billion before stabilizing. This represents a healthy “risk clearing” phase that often precedes accumulation.

AI Coins & Emerging Narratives

Trending Tokens This Week: ZEC (Zcash), ICP (Internet Computer), ZK (ZK Layer 2s)

• ICP (Internet Computer): DFINITY plans to reduce inflation and introduce deflationary mechanisms (80% of cloud engine revenue to node providers, 20% burned), showing renewed focus on tokenomics
• AI-Driven Ecosystems: Emerging presale projects (BullZilla, Blazpay) attract significant interest, though risks remain high for new tokenomics

Meme Coin Cooldown

Narrative: After explosive gains earlier in Q3-Q4 2024, meme coins like PEPE have cooled materially, with funding ratios shifting bearish. This suggests the speculative fervor is cooling while fundamental-driven narratives (efficiency, staking yields, institutional adoption) are reasserting.

5. Market Sentiment & On-Chain Metrics

Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear Territory

Current Reading: 23-27 (Extreme Fear)
Trend: Up slightly from October lows but still historically low

What This Means:

• Capitulation selling is occurring; many investors are selling at losses due to broader economic uncertainty
• Contrarian traders view this as an accumulation opportunity (April 2025’s bounce came from similar levels)
• Further downside is possible, but risk/reward is increasingly favorable for medium-term buyers

Historical Context: Crypto Fear & Greed scores below 25 often precede major rallies within 4-8 weeks.

Bitcoin Dominance & Altcoin Sentiment

BTC Dominance: Edged up +0.04% this week to approximately 54-55%

Interpretation:

• Flight to safety narrative is real but mild (dominance gains are small)
• Institutional capital rotating to “safer” L1s (Solana) rather than abandoning altcoins entirely
• A sustained rise in dominance above 56% would signal broader altcoin weakness; conversely, a drop below 52% would indicate altseason is returning

Stablecoin Flows & Liquidity Indicators

Net Exchange Flows: Stablecoins moving to exchanges spiked during the liquidation events, indicating panic selling followed by potential dry powder accumulation as fear subsides.

Observation: The ratio of Bitcoin moved to stablecoins vs. stablecoins to Bitcoin indicates strong selling intent persists, but the magnitude is declining—a sign that capitulation may be near completion.

BTC Dominance (Extreme Greed Reading)

The independent metric tracking Bitcoin’s market dominance specifically shows extreme greed territory, suggesting:

• Bitcoin is currently overweight relative to broader crypto sentiment
• Altcoin opportunities may be forming as valuations compress
• Historical pattern suggests mean reversion toward 50-52% dominance over next 4 weeks

6. Short-Term Outlook & Key Levels to Watch

Next Week’s Potential Catalysts

November 7-14 Focus Events:

1. U.S. Government Shutdown Update: If extended past Thanksgiving (Nov 27), expect sustained risk-off sentiment; if resolved, expect sharp rally across crypto/equities
2. Fed Speakers & Economic Data: Look for CPI data or unemployment reports mid-November
3. ETF Flow Direction: Pivoting from outflows to inflows would be a major sentiment inflection
4. Bitcoin’s $102,000 Retest: If support holds twice, risk/reward shifts decisively bullish

Key Price Levels for Next 7-14 Days

Asset	Support	Entry Zone	Resistance	Target
BTC	$102,000	$103,500-$104,500	$105,500	$110,000-$115,000
ETH	$3,750	$3,800-$3,900	$3,941.61	$4,300-$4,500
SOL	$175	$180-$190	$213	$232-$250
AVAX	$15.00	$16.50-$17.50	$20.00	$22.00-$25.00

Macro Catalysts to Monitor

Bullish Catalysts:

• Fed hints at potential rate cut pause/pivot in December messaging
• U.S. government shutdown resolved
• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows resume ($200M+ daily)
• Solana L2 ecosystem reaches $1B+ TVL

Bearish Catalysts:

• Shutdown extends further; Treasury liquidity crisis worsens
• Recession fears resurface (yield curve inversion deepens)
• Major protocol security incident or bank failure
• Bitcoin breaks $102,000; gap fills toward $92,000

📋 Next Week Watchlist: Key Events & Levels

• BTC Daily Close Above $104,800: Green light for $107,000+ test
• ETH Whale Accumulation: Monitor Lido staking inflows
• SOL Flag Breakout Above $213: Sets up $232+ leg
• AVAX $20 Resistance Test: Critical inflection zone
• DeFi TVL Stabilization Above $138B: Suggests panic selling complete
• Bitcoin ETF Flow Direction: First positive day signals sentiment reversal
• Fear & Greed Index Below 20: Historically, this is an extreme buy signal

Final Thoughts

The week of November 3-7 felt like a potential turning point in crypto markets. While headlines focused on bearish ETF outflows and macro headwinds, the data tells a more nuanced story: whales are accumulating, staking yields are being reinforced, and regulatory frameworks are becoming more constructive.

November historically rewards disciplined investors with patience and entry discipline. The current extreme fear environment mirrors the opportunities that emerged in April 2025, when early accumulators were rewarded with 30-50% gains within weeks.

For next week: Expect continued consolidation around key support levels. A confirmed hold above Bitcoin’s $102,000 or Ethereum’s $3,750 would be the signal that capitulation has completed and recovery is beginning.

Return next week for the latest technical updates, institutional flows, and emerging narratives shaping the next phase of the crypto cycle.