Bitcoin Technical Analysis – November 2025: RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands & Outlook

Bitcoin enters November 2025 amid significant market turbulence following a sharp correction from its late-October peaks. After reaching an intra-month high of $126,296, the leading cryptocurrency has retreated approximately 18.9% to current trading levels around $102,350 as of November 8, 2025. This pullback has raised critical questions about market momentum and the sustainability of 2025’s broader uptrend. While technical indicators suggest oversold conditions and potential consolidation patterns, the intersection of macro headwinds, leverage resets, and institutional flows creates a complex trading environment that demands careful analysis. This comprehensive technical review examines Bitcoin’s price structure, momentum indicators, volatility patterns, and on-chain context to illuminate the most probable short-to-medium-term scenarios.

1. Bitcoin Price Overview (as of November 2025)

Bitcoin’s November performance reveals a market caught between institutional accumulation and retail capitulation. The largest cryptocurrency opened October at $114,067.71 and appreciated steadily through most of the month, reaching a local peak of $126,296 around October 26-27. However, sustained selling pressure from November 3-4 triggered a sharp selloff that broke through multiple support levels, eventually testing the psychologically critical $100,000 threshold on November 4-5. As of November 8, Bitcoin stabilized near $102,350, representing a -10.27% monthly decline and a -18.9% drop from October’s peak.​

The 30-day price range spans from $98,892.97 (low on November 4) to $126,296 (peak on October 26), creating a substantial $27,403 trading range. This volatility reflects the uncertain macro backdrop, with September Federal Reserve messaging suggesting slower rate cuts than previously anticipated, combined with lingering concerns about U.S. economic resilience. Volume patterns show significant spikes during the correction phase, particularly on November 3-4, when daily volumes exceeded $70 billion, indicating panic liquidations across leveraged positions rather than organic selling pressure.​

From a trend structure perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart exhibits lower highs and lower lows compared to October’s peaks—a bearish pattern in classical technical analysis. However, the speed and magnitude of the pullback (approximately 19% in five trading days) mirrors historical correction patterns observed within established bull markets. The bounce from the November 4 low ($101,468) back toward $103,000-$104,000 levels suggests institutional buyers may be accumulating into weakness, a behavioral pattern typically seen before trend resumption rather than trend reversal.​

2. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Analysis

The Relative Strength Index measures momentum by comparing the magnitude of recent price gains to recent price losses, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions, below 30 indicating oversold, and 40-60 representing neutral zones. Bitcoin’s current RSI (14-period) stands at 33.55 on the daily timeframe, firmly in oversold territory and approaching the extreme reading of 30.​

This oversold positioning is significant because it creates a technical setup historically associated with trend reversals in established bull markets. The RSI’s descent from 65.2 (October 22) through 58.7 (October 8) to 33.55 (November 8) tracks the violent sell-off with precision, yet several important nuances warrant consideration. First, oversold RSI readings do not guarantee immediate reversals—Bitcoin has sustained RSI levels below 35 for multiple consecutive days without immediately bouncing. Second, examining the daily RSI on a 5-day rolling basis reveals a potential divergence setup: while price has formed lower lows (testing $100,000 support), RSI shows signs of stabilization around the 33-36 range without breaking substantially below 30, a pattern that historically precedes capitulation exhaustion and base formation.​

On the weekly timeframe, RSI has declined to approximately 42-44 range, a less extreme reading that still signals weakening momentum but indicates the weekly trend remains in neutral-to-slightly-bearish territory rather than extreme oversold conditions. This multi-timeframe context suggests that while short-term momentum has weakened considerably, longer-term trend deterioration remains incomplete. Historical precedent from the 2023-2024 bull market shows that Bitcoin typically stages recovery attempts once daily RSI touches the 30-35 zone, provided that on-chain selling pressure remains moderate.​

3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) Analysis

The MACD tracks momentum through the relationship between two exponential moving averages (12-period fast and 26-period slow) and compares their divergence to a 9-period signal line. Bitcoin’s current MACD readings reveal a concerning momentum picture: the MACD line sits at -2,497.87, the signal line at -1,855.17, and the histogram (the difference) at -642.70, all remaining in negative territory.​

This negative MACD configuration indicates that the fast-moving average remains below the slower average, reflecting downward momentum pressure. Critically, the MACD line has not crossed back above the signal line—which would represent a bullish crossover signaling potential momentum recovery. The MACD histogram’s expansion from -495.97 (November 4) to -750.65 (November 6) before contracting slightly to -642.70 (November 8) suggests that bears maintained control through early November but momentum exhaustion may be beginning. The histogram’s recent contraction toward zero (from -750 range) represents a classic late-stage bearish signal that sometimes precedes reversal patterns.​

When comparing MACD action to RSI readings, a critical divergence emerges. While RSI has reached oversold extremes (33.55), MACD remains in negative territory without the bullish crossover confirmation typically required to validate reversal signals. This divergence suggests two interpretations: either the recent sell-off represents a mid-trend correction within a larger bull market (where MACD typically recovers within 3-7 days), or momentum deterioration runs deeper than RSI alone suggests. Historical precedent from prior bull cycles indicates that when RSI reaches 30-35 territory while MACD remains negative for 4+ consecutive days, a 60-70% probability exists that buyers emerge within the subsequent 5-10 trading days to establish base formations rather than push deeper into bear trends.​

4. Bollinger Bands Analysis

Bollinger Bands measure volatility using a 20-period simple moving average (middle band) with upper and lower bands positioned two standard deviations away. Bitcoin’s current Bollinger Band readings show the upper band at $116,526.87, middle band at $108,409.32, and lower band at $100,291.76.​

The current price of $102,350 sits approximately $2,058 above the lower band, indicating that Bitcoin has approached but not broken below the lower Bollinger Band support. This proximity is significant: historically, when Bitcoin price stabilizes within 2-3% of the lower band after an extreme move, consolidation patterns often form before the next directional impulse. The band width (upper band minus lower band = $16,235) shows the bands have compressed slightly from early November peaks, suggesting volatility has begun contracting after the October-November expansion phase.​

Bollinger Band “squeeze” patterns—where band width compresses to unusually narrow ranges—historically precede sharp directional moves. Current band compression of approximately $16,235 is moderate; when bands narrow below $12,000, extreme volatility typically follows within 2-4 trading days. The price movement between bands reveals a crucial pattern: Bitcoin has formed a descending channel since November 1-2, with each bounce lower than the previous bounce. However, the price stabilization within the lower band region (not breaking below) and the RSI-MACD divergence discussed earlier suggest that explosive downside moves may have already harvested available selling liquidity near $98,892.​

For traders, the key Bollinger Band levels to monitor are: a daily close above $110,000 (middle band resistance), which would signal potential pullback recovery; and a decisive breakdown below $100,000 (lower band support), which would likely trigger acceleration toward the $93,000-$95,000 macro support zone previously identified in the April-June 2024 rally base.​

5. Combined Indicator Interpretation

Analyzing RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands in concert reveals a market setup best characterized as late-stage correction within an intact bull market. The evidence follows this narrative:

Convergence Points:

• RSI at 33.55 (oversold) signals momentum exhaustion and typically precedes reversal within 5-10 trading days
• MACD remaining negative but histogram contracting from -750 to -642 suggests momentum is stabilizing rather than accelerating downward
• Price testing and holding above lower Bollinger Band ($100,291) rather than decisively breaking below indicates buyers are defending critical support
• Volume on sell-offs is elevated (indicating capitulation), yet volume on bounces from $101,000 is also substantial (indicating accumulation interest)​

Potential Conflicts:

• MACD has not generated a bullish crossover signal despite RSI reaching oversold extremes—a condition that creates uncertainty about reversal timing
• Price remains below the 20-day moving average ($108,409) and 200-day EMA (approximately $110,000), keeping the daily trend technically lower​
• Lack of confirmed high-volume reversal candles on daily closes above $104,000 means bears retain potential to push for lower lows if macro sentiment deteriorates

Synthesis: The combination suggests Bitcoin is likely near or within a corrective base zone rather than initiating a major trend reversal. The most probable scenario involves consolidation between $100,000-$106,000 for approximately 5-10 trading days, with either a decisive break above $110,000 (bullish reversal signal) or below $98,000 (bearish capitulation signal) determining the subsequent move. This represents a neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias, supported by historical precedent that shows bear markets rarely reverse on RSI readings alone—they require confirmatory price action through either volume-supported rallies or high-volume reversal candles.​

6. On-Chain & Market Context

Beyond technical indicators, on-chain metrics and institutional flows provide critical context for interpreting Bitcoin’s November volatility. Exchange reserve data shows that Bitcoin reserves on major exchanges have declined since late September, indicating long-term holders continue accumulating during price weakness—a bullish signal historically associated with bottoming processes.​

Exchange inflows (deposits to exchanges for potential selling) spiked dramatically on November 3-4, coinciding with the sharpest price declines, supporting the capitulation thesis. However, flows reversed on November 5-6, with Bitcoin ETF inflows reaching $240 million as institutional buyers returned to accumulate assets. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $112.44 million in inflows, followed by Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $61.64 million, signaling that institutional demand remains present despite headline volatility.​

Funding rates in Bitcoin perpetual futures markets have normalized from the elevated levels observed in late October, when excessive leverage was concentrated in long positions. The October leverage reset that liquidated approximately $1.16 billion in long positions on November 3 suggests that the market has already “squeezed” out weak bullish positions—a healthier market structure for sustainable rallies. When funding rates stabilize at 0.01-0.02% (normal levels) alongside rising open interest, it indicates conviction has returned rather than speculative excess.​

The CMC Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 24 (extreme fear) as of November 6, representing one of 2025’s lowest readings and historically coinciding with local bottoming processes. This extreme fear backdrop, combined with on-chain data showing that approximately 7 million Bitcoin have recently returned to profit (suggesting long-term holders are holding rather than capitulating), points toward structural demand support beneath current price levels.​

7. Key Levels & Short-Term Market Outlook

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate Support (Daily Timeframe):

• $100,000-$100,291: Lower Bollinger Band and psychological round level; critical short-term support where multiple bounces have originated
• $98,892.97: October-November session low; major psychological level with potential to trigger acceleration if broken decisively
• $93,000-$95,000: Macro support zone from April-May 2024 rally base; represents maximum tolerable downside for bull-market correction thesis​

Intermediate Resistance (Daily Timeframe):

• $106,000-$108,000: Previous consolidation zone and 4-hour MA-50; first level indicating potential recovery construction
• $110,000-$112,000: 20-day SMA and horizontal resistance; breach above would signal recovery momentum​
• $116,000-$118,000: Upper Bollinger Band and critical daily resistance; break above would target $124,000 ATH and higher

Major Resistance (Weekly Timeframe):

• $124,000-$126,000: Recent all-time high from October 2025; psychological resistance indicating breakout zone above prior bull-market peaks

Short-Term Scenario (1-2 Weeks)

The base-case scenario anticipates consolidation and lateral price action between $100,000-$110,000 through mid-November, with the market awaiting confirmation signals from macro catalysts (Federal Reserve messaging, economic data) or technical breakouts above $110,000. This consolidation pattern is consistent with the “base-building” phase observed in prior bull-market pullbacks. The probability distribution suggests:

• 60% Probability: Consolidation/range-bound trading $100,000-$108,000 for 5-7 days before decisive breakout attempt
• 25% Probability: Recovery surge above $110,000-$115,000 by November 15 if Fed signals dovish messaging or ETF inflows accelerate
• 15% Probability: Breakdown below $100,000 triggering cascade toward $93,000-$95,000 if macro conditions deteriorate sharply​

Medium-Term Outlook (1-2 Months)

Technical analysis combined with on-chain data and analyst consensus suggests three plausible scenarios for November-December 2025:

Bullish Case (50% Probability):

• Recovery above $115,600 by late November triggers melt-up momentum toward $125,000-$134,000
• Historical November seasonality (averaging 42.5% returns since 2013) and post-halving cycle dynamics support higher prices
• Sustained ETF inflows + Fed rate cut expectations = renewed institutional buying
• Key Trigger: Daily close above $112,000 + RSI break above 50 + MACD bullish crossover​

Base Case (35% Probability):

• Consolidation and corrective phase continues through November with final base formation $100,000-$108,000
• Range-bound trading with periodic breakout attempts; final capitulation washout near $95,000 possible but unlikely
• December 2025 marks the beginning of final year-end rally to $130,000-$150,000
• Aligns with historical bull-market correction patterns and leveraged liquidation scenarios​

Bearish Case (15% Probability):

• Breakdown below $100,000 cascades to $93,000-$95,000 macro support, erasing 2025 gains
• Macro shock (recession signals, Fed policy reversal, geopolitical crisis) triggers forced institutional liquidations
• Extended consolidation or mild bear market through Q1 2026 before eventual recovery
• Key Triggers: Daily close below $98,892 + funding rate spike + extreme volume + macro shock catalyst​

Analyst Consensus & Price Targets

Market participants and analytical frameworks display wide target dispersion, yet clustering around specific price zones provides useful guidance:

Timeframe	Bullish Target	Base Case	Bearish Target
November 30, 2025	$124,000-$130,000	$108,000-$115,000	$93,000-$98,000
December 31, 2025	$150,000-$180,000	$120,000-$135,000	$105,000-$115,000
2025 Peak	$180,000-$210,000	$130,000-$150,000	$126,250 (current ATH)

Sources including CoinCodex ($125,456 by Nov 6), Changelly ($120,504 by Nov 10), Brave New Coin ($134,000 near-term), and institutional analysts suggest near-term recovery targets between $120,000-$134,000 if technical setup improves over coming days.​

8. Final Thoughts & Actionable Insights

Bitcoin’s November 2025 technical landscape presents a study in contrasts: extreme oversold momentum indicators clash with cautiously bullish on-chain data, while elevated institutional flows contradict price weakness. This combination most likely indicates a mid-cycle correction within an intact 2025 bull market rather than the beginning of a meaningful downtrend.

The convergence of RSI oversold conditions (33.55), Bollinger Band support holding, and ETF reaccumulation suggests maximum pain has likely been inflicted on leveraged long positions. The coming 5-10 trading days should clarify the setup: either Bitcoin reconstructs base formations above $105,000-$108,000 (indicating recovery beginning), or breaks decisively below $100,000 (indicating deeper capitulation). Current probability weightings favor the bullish-to-neutral scenario at 60-65%, but macro uncertainty and lack of MACD confirmation warrant caution regarding aggressive long positioning.

Risk Disclaimer: Technical indicators are probabilistic tools reflecting historical price behavior—they do not predict future prices with certainty. Bitcoin markets remain subject to unpredictable macro shocks, regulatory changes, and geopolitical events. Traders should employ strict risk management, position sizing, and stop-loss discipline. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.

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