Weekly Crypto Analysis: BTC $91k ETH $3k – Nov 2025 Week 4

Introduction – The Correction Nobody Expected (Or Did They?)

Week 4 of November has been a humbling reality check for the entire cryptocurrency market. After the euphoric highs of early November—when Bitcoin was trading near $124,000 and Ethereum above $6,000—we’ve now seen a sharp, disciplined correction that erased weeks of gains in just a few days.

As of Sunday, November 30, 2025 – 4:12 PM (Vietnam Time):

• Bitcoin (BTC): $91,040 – down roughly $27,000 from the levels assumed in earlier projections.
• Ethereum (ETH): $3,006.71 – a dramatic pullback from the $5,850 region.

The vibe has shifted from “inevitable ATH” to “are we in capitulation?” Social sentiment has cooled from Extreme Greed (88) to Cautious Greed (68). The key lesson from this move: leverage flushes work in both directions.

• Traders who piled in during extreme optimism have been stopped out or liquidated.
• Traders who waited for a deeper correction are now facing a critical decision point.

This week is not about perfectly calling the bottom. It’s about understanding how markets purge excess and how to position yourself for what comes next.

Section 1 – What Actually Happened: BTC & ETH Price Action Decoded

Bitcoin: The $85K Test Is Real

Bitcoin’s weekly structure tells a story of aggressive distribution, followed by capitulation-style buying:

• Weekly Open: $86,808.28 (Monday, Nov 24)
• Weekly High: $93,161.86 (Wednesday intra-week bounce)
• Weekly Low: $85,213.17 (Thursday morning panic wash)
• Current Close: $91,040.02 (Sunday, Nov 30)
• Weekly Performance: +4.87% (strong rebound from the lows)

The $85,213 low is now the critical floor:

• If this level breaks convincingly, we step into Scenario A (deeper capitulation toward $78,000).
• If it holds, the $88,000–$91,000 zone can evolve into a new accumulation base.

Technical structure:

BTC carved out a V-shaped recovery this week – a deep intraday flush followed by sharp buying. This is typical of healthy post-leverage-flush volatility, not a confirmed macro reversal. Volume on the bounce was strong, hinting at institutional support at lower prices.

Ethereum: The Painful ETH/BTC Compression

Ethereum’s weekly story has been more painful and more revealing:

• Weekly Open: $2,801.14
• Weekly High: $3,099.00
• Weekly Low: $2,762.00 (almost a full retest of the open)
• Current Close: $3,006.71
• Weekly Performance: +7.34%

On paper, ETH outperformed BTC in percentage terms this week. But the ETH/BTC ratio has compressed, signaling that:

• ETH failed to reclaim the $3,500+ levels many were expecting.
• Altseason did not arrive this week.
• Alts are lagging, not leading.

The key support at $2,800 was tested and held, which is one of the few clear positives. But the broader takeaway is simple: this correction was BTC-led, with ETH and alts in a reactive role, not a leading one.

Section 2 – Under the Hood: What Smart Money Did This Week

On-Chain Data: The Capitulation Signature

Despite the violent price moves, on-chain data shows classic capitulation and strong-hand accumulation.

Exchange flows: two-phase pattern

• Phase 1 – Panic: Early in the week (Days 1–3), exchange inflows spiked as retail and weak hands rushed to sell.
• Phase 2 – Accumulation: By Thursday–Friday, the pattern flipped. Exchange outflows resumed as coins moved back into cold storage and custodial wallets.

This “in → out” pattern is exactly what we see around local bottoms:

1. Weak hands sell into fear.
2. Strong hands quietly absorb and withdraw.

Whale Accumulation: Breathing Room, Not Exit

“Whale” wallets (holding 1,000+ BTC) became active buyers between $85K–$88K:

• From Thursday morning to Friday evening, whales accumulated an estimated 8,500 BTC net.

That is not the footprint of a macro top. That’s a capitulation absorption signature: large players using fear-driven selling as liquidity to build size.

ETF & Institutional Reality Check

Spot ETF data this week was mixed but far from catastrophic:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT):
  • Saw outflows on Monday–Tuesday (panic phase).
  • Flipped back to net inflows Thursday–Friday.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust:
  • Also saw early-week outflows that slowed and partially reversed by week’s end.
• MicroStrategy:
  • Held its position and did not panic sell.
  • This signals continued institutional conviction at lower price levels.

Taken together, this is a story of short-term fear, not institutional abandonment.

Section 3 – Derivatives & Sentiment: The Leverage Flush Signature

This section explains why the correction happened and why it might be closer to the end than the beginning.

Funding Rates: Back to Baseline

The evolution of funding rates this month is textbook:

• Early November Peak:
  • Funding rates pushed to 45–50% annualized – extreme greed and overcrowded longs.
• Nov 25–26 (Post Flush):
  • Funding flipped negative as traders closed longs and rushed into shorts or sidelined stablecoins.
• Nov 29–30 (Now):
  • Funding has normalized around +8% annualized – a healthy, sustainable baseline.

What this means:

The excess leverage has been purged.

We’re no longer in a manic long-only environment, nor in a full panic shorting frenzy. This “middle zone” is where new trends can form without immediately triggering massive liquidation cascades.

Open Interest: Deleveraging in Progress

Total Open Interest (OI) tells a similar story:

• Peak OI (Nov 22): $44.2B
• Current OI (Nov 30): $28.7B (–35%)

A 35% OI compression is not a sign of the market dying. It’s a sign of dangerous leverage being removed.

• Fewer over-leveraged positions =
• Lower risk of chain-reaction liquidations =
• Cleaner, healthier price discovery going forward.

Fear & Greed Index: Cautious Greed, Not Mania

• Peak earlier this month: 88 (Extreme Greed)
• Current reading: 68 (Greed, but much more cautious)

We are now in a “sweet spot”:

• Past the shock and panic phase (which would be <25).
• Below the euphoria and blow-off zone (>80).

This is often where bottoms form and ranges build.

Section 4 – Three Revised Scenarios for December (Reality-Based)

Now that the leverage flush is already in motion, we update the December playbook.

Scenario A – Bearish Capitulation: The Deeper Washout

Probability: ~40%

Conditions:

• Fresh macro shock (recession fears, hawkish central banks, regulatory fear), and
• Another wave of forced liquidations.

Bitcoin:

• Trigger: Clean break below $85,213 support.
• Targets:
  • Primary: $78,000–$80,000 (confluence with 20-month MA and prior demand).
  • Panic wicks could briefly test even lower.
• Recovery zone: Strong bids expected around $76,000–$78,000, where institutions are likely waiting.

Ethereum:

• Targets: $2,400–$2,500 (major multi-month support cluster).
• Would likely see panic volume followed by a violent reversal bounce.

Invalidation:

• A daily close back above $88,000 (BTC) with strong volume after a brief dip below $85,213 would invalidate extended downside and shift odds back toward Scenario B.

Scenario B – Base Case Recovery: Consolidation & Grind

Probability: ~45%

This is the most likely path based on current data.

Conditions:

• No major macro shock.
• Funding stays near baseline.
• ETF flows remain mixed but stable (no big exodus).

Bitcoin:

• Range: $88,000–$95,000 consolidation.
• Structure: Flag or rectangle; typical behavior before a December breakout.
• Key resistance: $97,000–$100,000.

Ethereum:

• Range: $2,800–$3,200.
• Upside target if range breaks up: $3,500.

Invalidation:

• BTC daily close below $85,200 (shift toward Scenario A), or
• BTC daily close above $97,000 with strong follow-through (increasing odds of Scenario C).

Scenario C – Bullish Breakout: December Rally

Probability: ~15%

Conditions:

• Positive macro drivers (supportive risk-on environment).
• ETF inflows resume strongly.
• Narrative flips from “shakeout” to “continuation.”

Bitcoin:

• Trigger: Daily close above $94,000 with strong volume.
• Targets:
  • First leg: $100,000–$105,000.
  • Extended leg: $115,000–$120,000 if momentum accelerates.

Ethereum:

• Targets: $3,500–$4,000, likely accompanied by alt rotation if confidence returns.

Invalidation:

• Failure to hold above $94,000 on retest (fake breakout), followed by a drop back into the mid-$80Ks.

Section 5 – What This Correction Reveals About Market Health

Before rushing into new trades, zoom out and ask: What did this correction actually tell us?

1. Leverage Flush = Healthy Price Discovery

The $85,213 low was put in on surging volume and obvious panic.

That is exactly what a healthy bottom looks like:

• It feels terrible.
• It forces out weak hands and over-leveraged positions.
• It gives stronger participants a chance to reload.

If the move had been gentle and unconvincing, we’d be more suspicious.

2. Strong Hands Are Accumulating, Not Exiting

The data shows:

• Whales increasing holdings in the $85K–$88K zone.
• ETF outflows slowing and partially reversing.
• Large holders like MicroStrategy not puking their bags.

That’s the opposite of institutional capitulation.

3. Funding Has Reset to Sustainable Levels

With funding normalized and OI down 35%, the next leg up (if it comes) is likely to be more sustainable than the blow-off to $124K.

4. The Technical Pattern Remains Constructive

The V-shaped recovery back toward $91K by Sunday shows buyers are still present and willing to defend sub-$90K prices.

It’s not “bull market over.” It’s “bull market forced to reset.”

Section 6 – Playbooks for Different Trader Types

A. Long-Term Accumulators (HODLers)

For multi-year BTC/ETH accumulators, this week was a discount event, not a disaster.

Possible DCA plan:

• 30% of dry powder at current levels (~$91K BTC / $3K ETH).
• 30% if price revisits the $88K–$85K region.
• 40% reserved in case Scenario A plays out toward $78K BTC.

You don’t need the exact bottom. You just need to accumulate meaningfully below the previous euphoria highs.

B. Short-Term Swing Traders

The environment is tricky but tradeable if you respect levels.

Long setups (trend continuation from $85K bounce):

• Wait for a 4H close above $92,500 (reclaiming short-term resistance).
• Stop-loss: Below $85,200 (invalidates V-bounce structure).
• Targets:
  • First: $95,000–$97,000.
  • Second: near $100K if momentum is strong.

Short setups (only if real breakdown):

• Only consider shorts on a daily close below $85,200 with strong volume.
• Targets: $82K–$80K.
• Otherwise, shorting here means fighting a still-developing recovery.

Rule of thumb:
In a post-flush environment, it’s usually better to ride the bounce than bet on immediate continuation down.

C. AI Bot Users

Many trend-following bots struggled or got wrecked this week. Now is the time to align bot logic with the regime.

1. Grid Bots – This Is Their Moment

• Suggested BTC range: $85,000–$94,000.
• Suggested ETH range: $2,750–$3,100.

Choppy ranges with clear floors and ceilings are perfect for grid strategies.

2. DCA Bots – Turn Up the Frequency (Carefully)

• If you were buying weekly, consider 2–3 smaller DCA buys per week while prices remain in this post-flush zone.
• Once BTC breaks $97K with momentum, you can return to your normal schedule.

3. Trend / Momentum Bots – Pause & Wait

• Consider pausing or shrinking allocation until BTC:
  • Breaks and holds above $94K–$97K, or
  • Clearly confirms Scenario A breakdown.

Example mean-reversion bot idea (for backtesting):

• Buy condition: 15-minute RSI < 35 and price inside $88K–$93K.
• Sell condition: RSI > 65.
• Max 3 trades/day.
• Fixed 0.5%–1% profit target per trade.

Backtest first. Then deploy with small real capital if it performs well in this volatility profile.

Section 7 – Key Signals to Watch Next Week

You don’t need 20 dashboards. Focus on these three:

Signal	Bullish Interpretation	Bearish Interpretation	Current Status (Nov 30, 2025)
Funding Rate	Flat or slightly negative = healthy	Spiking strongly positive = crowded longs	✅ Around +8% (healthy baseline)
Daily Close > $92,500	Confirms breakout from post-flush range	Failure = dead-cat bounce risk	⏳ Being tested – watch 4H/daily closes
ETF Flows	Sustained inflows > $100M/day = strong demand	Accelerating outflows = risk-off	⏳ Mixed – monitoring next week’s data

Right now, 2 out of 3 lean constructively bullish (funding + on-chain accumulation). If ETF inflows re-accelerate next week, probabilities tilt further toward Scenario B or C.

Conclusion – From Capitulation to Accumulation

Week 4 of November 2025 will be remembered as the week the market did its job:

• Excessive leverage was flushed.
• Weak hands were forced out.
• Strong hands quietly accumulated.
• Funding and OI reset to healthier levels.

This does not look like the end of a bull market. It looks like the reset that allows a bull market to continue more sustainably.

The key question for December:

Will institutions keep buying dips, or was this the cycle top?

So far, the data—whale accumulation, stabilization of ETF flows, normalized funding—leans toward the “buy the dip, don’t bury the cycle” interpretation.

Your job isn’t to predict the exact path. Your job is to:

• Define your scenario (A, B, or C).
• Set clear invalidation levels.
• Size your risk appropriately.
• Execute only when your conditions are met.

Don’t chase. The same volatility that took BTC to $85K in a day can take it to $100K just as fast. Patience is a position.

Review your:

• Position sizes
• Leverage usage
• Bot configurations
• “If X, then Y” plans

Capitulation is often not the end. It’s the beginning of the next phase.

FAQ

Q: Did we hit the bottom at $85,213?
Probably a local bottom, not necessarily the cycle bottom. Scenario A (a deeper flush toward $78K) still has a ~40% probability. Don’t build your entire plan around a single level.

Q: Should I sell here and wait for lower prices?

• If you’re a short-term trader, locking in profits can make sense. Waiting for clarity (or lower entries) can also be beneficial. This approach is valid if you have a re-entry plan.
• If you’re a long-term accumulator, selling now just to hope for $78K is risky. We may never touch that level, leaving you stuck on the sidelines.

Q: Is the bull market dead?
Based on current data, no.
The structure of this correction features a V-shaped bounce. Whales are accumulating. Funding is normalizing. This pattern is more consistent with a bull market reset than a terminal top.

Q: My bot got liquidated this week. What now?
Treat this as a case study, not a reason for revenge trading:

• Was leverage too high?
• Was the bot designed for trends but used in chop?
• Were there no kill-switch or daily loss limits?

Fix the process first. Then re-deploy with smaller size and clearer rules.

Q: Is this a good time to use high leverage?
Not yet. Recovery phases are fragile. Even if you’re right on direction, volatility can still wick you out. Keep leverage modest (2–3x max) until we see:

• A confirmed breakout above $94K–$97K, and
• Healthier structure without frequent deep wicks.

Q: What if macro conditions deteriorate next week?
If we encounter real macro stress, then Scenario A ($78K BTC) becomes more likely. Examples of this stress include recession headlines, systemic risk, or a major credit event. That’s why stop-losses and position sizing matter. Trade probabilities, not fear alone.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk, including the potential for total loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.