Weekly Crypto Analysis: BTC & ETH Forecast Nov 2025 Week 3

The Week Traders Won’t Forget: When $100K Support Became Resistance

Week 3 of November 2025 (November 15–21) marked a brutal turning point for crypto traders and investors. What began as cautious optimism earlier in the month turned into one of the sharpest corrections of the year.

• Bitcoin (BTC) dropped roughly 8–10% across the week, sliding from around $95,500 on November 15 to lows near $81,000–$82,000 by November 21 – its lowest level since April 2025.
• Ethereum (ETH) mirrored the weakness, falling from about $3,106 to test critical support near $2,700, a decline of roughly 9–13%.

The dominant narrative: macro risk-off sentiment colliding with weakening crypto flows — persistent ETF outflows, collapsing funding rates, aggressive whale activity, and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy. This was not “just another dip”; it was a coordinated flush of overleveraged positions, ETF capitulation, and a serious test of conviction for long-term holders.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All trading and investing involves risk. Never allocate capital you cannot afford to lose.

1. Price Action – What BTC & ETH Did This Week

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC entered the week trading around $95,500, after touching weekly highs near $96,630 on November 15. Selling pressure intensified mid-week, pushing BTC below the psychological $90,000 level. The selloff accelerated into November 20–21, with BTC briefly dipping to around $81,000 – a drawdown of roughly 33% from its October all-time high above $126,000.

Key levels this week:

• Weekly high: ~$96,630 (Nov 15)
• Weekly low: ~$81,000 (Nov 21)
• Closing range: ~$82,000–$85,000

Support / resistance zones:

• Major support: $80,000–$82,000 (April 2025 lows; now being retested)
• Former support, now resistance: $87,500–$89,000 (approx. average ETF entry; lost)
• Psychological resistance: $95,000–$100,000 (previous floor, now a heavy ceiling)
• Major resistance: $105,000–$107,000 (October consolidation area)

Price structure:

BTC showed a classic breakdown pattern:

• A series of lower highs,
• Followed by a decisive break below key support,
• With $100K flipping from strong support into a clear resistance zone.

Weekend price action came with long intraday wicks and sharp moves, signaling thin order books and high liquidation activity. The loss of $90K triggered cascading margin calls and forced selling, accelerating the move toward the low-$80Ks.

ETF flows: when flows become a headwind

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their worst month on record in November:

• Approx. $3.79B in net outflows during the month
• Single-day outflows > $900M on November 20
• BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw over $2B in monthly redemptions

The estimated weighted average entry price for ETF buyers sits near $91,725, meaning many ETF holders are now underwater. Persistent outflows have directly contributed to spot selling pressure and reinforced the breakdown below $90K and then $85K.

Ethereum (ETH)

ETH’s structure broadly mirrored BTC but with slightly more fragility.

ETH opened the week around $3,106, briefly tested resistance near $3,170, then broke down. By November 21, ETH had fallen below $2,800, touching lows near $2,728 – a drop of about 13% week-on-week and roughly 45% below its August 2025 all-time high.

Key levels this week:

• Weekly high: ~$3,170 (Nov 16)
• Weekly low: ~$2,728 (Nov 21)
• Closing range: ~$2,760–$2,800

Support / resistance zones:

• Major support: $2,500–$2,700 (June 2025 consolidation; now under test)
• Minor support: ~$2,620 (intraday lows)
• Resistance: $3,000–$3,200 (momentum pivot: must reclaim for any sustainable reversal)
• Major resistance: $3,500–$3,700 (top of a descending channel)

ETH/BTC ratio: weak, but not broken

The ETH/BTC ratio held roughly in the 0.030–0.032 band. That means:

• ETH underperformed slightly in USD terms,
• But did not collapse relative to BTC the way many altcoins did.

In past cycles, similar BTC corrections often saw ETH/BTC plunge more aggressively. The current resilience hints that:

• ETH ETFs
• Layer-2 adoption
• And staking demand

are providing a structural bid that keeps ETH in “consolidation mode” rather than full capitulation, even if price action remains fragile.

2. On-Chain & Smart Money Flows

Bitcoin: whales buying, retail exiting

On-chain data shows a clear divergence:

• Whales = buying dips
• Retail = capitulating

Exchange flows

• Over 580,000 BTC flowed into exchanges during November – a sign of distribution and profit-taking.
• Crucially, this came from a relatively small number of large wallets, not a broad retail stampede.
• As price approached April lows, exchange outflows picked up again, with whales moving BTC back to cold storage.

This pattern points to smart money absorbing supply while weaker hands sell.

Whale & long-term holder behavior

• Wallets holding 1,000+ BTC climbed to a 4-month high (~1,384 addresses).
• Over 375,000 BTC was absorbed by whale wallets in the last 30 days, including large buys in the $89K–$90K zone.
• Example: a single 1,300 BTC (~$121M) purchase from custodian BitGo.
• The Exchange Whale Ratio fell from 0.579 → 0.374 between Nov 15–18, suggesting whales are sending less BTC to exchanges and more to long-term storage.
• Long-term holders (LTHs) absorbed about 186,000 BTC since October 6, reversing earlier distribution.
• The MVRV ratio dropped to around 1.8, its lowest since April 2025 – a zone historically associated with mid-cycle bottoms and more attractive long-term entry points.

Retail wallets

• Addresses holding < 1 BTC fell about 43% to 977,420 wallets.
• This indicates many small holders either sold out, reduced exposure, or were flushed out during the selloff.

So what?
Structurally, on-chain data screams “whales accumulating, retail giving up.” Historically, that’s a constructive medium-term signal. The catch: whales can accumulate for weeks before price truly stabilizes or trends higher. Confirmation comes when:

• Whale holdings keep rising
• Exchange reserves keep falling
• And price stops making new lows on bad news

Ethereum: L2 migration and quiet mainnet

Layer-2 dominance

Ethereum’s economic activity continues to shift to Layer 2:

• 58.5% of Ethereum transactions now occur on L2s (Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, etc.)
• Base alone processes hundreds of millions of daily transactions, dwarfing mainnet usage

Implications:

• Lower mainnet traffic → lower fee burn → weaker deflationary pressure
• Annualized burn rate has cooled to around 1.3%, down from peaks above 3%
• With reduced burn and steady staking rewards, ETH is currently mildly inflationary (approx. +750 ETH net supply per day)

Staking & supply lock

• Around 29.4% of ETH supply (~35.6M ETH) is locked in staking.
• Another ~826,000 ETH sits in the queue waiting to be staked.
• Historically, a deep staking queue signals sustained institutional and long-term demand for ETH yield.

So what?
Short term, ETH’s on-chain profile is neutral to slightly bearish:

• L2 migration is great for scalability,
• But it temporarily reduces L1 fee burn, softening the “ultra sound money” narrative.

Longer term, strong staking demand and L2 growth still support the case for ETH. But for a powerful price recovery, ETH likely needs:

• Either higher mainnet activity (increasing burn),
• Or economic models that better route L2 value back to L1.

3. Derivatives & Sentiment – Positioning vs Emotion

Derivatives: funding, open interest, liquidations

Funding rates

During the week, BTC and ETH funding rates flipped sharply negative, signaling:

• A mass exit of overleveraged longs
• And growing confidence among shorts

Negative funding means short positions are paying less (or being paid) to hold, making it more attractive to bet against price in the short term.

By mid-November, funding reached some of the most compressed levels since the October 10 liquidation event. Historically, such extreme funding:

• Reflects pessimism at an extreme, and
• Often precedes short squeezes if price stabilizes and starts grinding up.

Open interest (OI)

• BTC perp OI dropped >20% in BTC terms and ~32% in USD terms since October 9.
• As of November 20, total BTC OI sat near $9B, roughly half of pre-October unwind levels.
• ETH futures OI declined about 7% week-on-week to around $6.7B, the largest weekly OI outflow since the October crash.

This tells us:

• Leverage is being bled out of the system,
• Traders are cautious about re-risking too soon.

Low OI reduces the risk of massive liquidation cascades, but also signals low conviction.

Liquidations

• Over the week, about $2B in crypto positions were liquidated,
• With BTC accounting for roughly $1.14B.
• On November 20 alone, almost $1B was liquidated in a single hour as BTC broke below $82,000.
• Longs took most of the damage: around $1.7B in long liquidations over 24 hours on November 21 – the largest daily wipeout since the 2022 bear market.
• The biggest single liquidation was a $36.78M BTC-USD position on Hyperliquid.

So what?
The market has undergone a major leverage cleanse. That’s painful in the moment, but:

• It reduces the probability of more giant flushes purely from leverage,
• And sets the stage for rallies that are less dependent on crowded perp positioning.

However, until funding normalizes and OI stabilizes or rebuilds alongside price, the environment remains fragile.

Sentiment: extreme fear and contrarian signals

Fear & Greed

• The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell into the 11–14 range by November 21 – deep “Extreme Fear”.
• A separate Greed & Fear model (10x Research) dropped below 5 points, with its 21-day moving average around 10% – levels that have historically coincided with tactical bottoms.

Social sentiment

• Crypto Twitter/X saw a spike in Bitcoin mentions, typical of panic phases where emotions run high.
• The narrative pivoted sharply from “$150K next” optimism in October to “how low can we go?” pessimism in November.

Historically:

• Extreme fear often appears near medium-term lows,
• But markets can still drift lower or chop sideways even after these readings (e.g., March–April 2025).

So what?
Sentiment is maximally bearish, which is usually a contrarian opportunity zone for patient, well-risk-managed capital. But fear alone is not a timing tool. The ideal combo to watch for is:

• Extreme fear,
• Stabilizing price, and
• Calming derivatives metrics (funding, OI, liquidations).

4. BTC & ETH Short-Term Scenarios (1–2 Week Outlook)

Rather than predictions, think in scenarios with rough probabilities.

Scenario 1 – Base Case (~50%)

Choppy Range Above $80K: Slow, Messy Repair

Key assumptions:

• BTC holds $80K–$82K; ETH holds $2,500–$2,700.
• ETF outflows moderate, even if they don’t fully reverse.
• Fed rhetoric stays “higher for longer” but doesn’t turn dramatically more hawkish.
• No major new macro or crypto-specific shock.

Likely price behavior:

• BTC: Chops between $80K–$95K, with failed attempts to reclaim $90K–$95K cleanly.
• ETH: Ranges $2,500–$3,200, with $3,000 acting as a pivot zone.

What to watch:

• Continued whale accumulation and exchange outflows.
• OI stabilizing rather than collapsing further.
• Funding normalizing toward neutral.

Invalidation:
A daily or weekly close below $80K BTC or $2,500 ETH would weaken this scenario and shift odds toward the bearish case.

Scenario 2 – Bullish Case (~25–30%)

Short Squeeze + ETF Stabilization: Push Back Toward $100K

Key assumptions:

• Fed hints at future rate cuts or adopts a clear dovish tilt.
• BTC ETF flows stabilize and flip back to net inflows.
• Funding stays negative or near zero long enough to create a squeeze setup.
• Whales continue buying, retail slowly rotates back in.

Likely price behavior:

• BTC: Reclaims $90K, then challenges $95K–$100K, with wicks toward $105K possible if squeeze is strong.
• ETH: Reclaims $3,000–$3,200, with potential extension toward $3,500–$3,800.

What to watch:

• Strong exchange outflows (hundreds of thousands of BTC over 1–2 weeks).
• OI rebuilding as price rises (healthy leverage returning).
• Funding flipping modestly positive but not overheated.
• Daily ETF inflows in the hundreds of millions.

Invalidation:
Failure to reclaim $90K BTC or $3,000 ETH within ~2 weeks would lower the odds of this scenario materially.

Scenario 3 – Bearish Case (~20–25%)

Deeper Flush: April Lows and Potential $70K Wicks

Key assumptions:

• Fed stays firmly hawkish, keeps markets on edge.
• BTC ETF outflows accelerate, not just persist.
• Macro risk-off escalates (recession fears, geopolitical shocks, credit stress).
• Retail panic intensifies, social sentiment turns outright apocalyptic.

Likely price behavior:

• BTC: Breaks $80K, tests $75K (April 2025 lows) with possible wick into $70K territory.
• ETH: Breaks $2,500, tests $2,100, with possible spikes to $1,800–$2,000.

What to watch:

• Whale accumulation slowing or reversing.
• LTHs starting to distribute into weakness.
• Big exchange inflow spikes (100,000+ BTC per day).
• ETF outflows > $1B/week consistently.

Invalidation:
Strong defense of $80K BTC and $2,500 ETH, combined with ongoing whale accumulation and normalizing funding, would reduce the odds of this scenario.

5. Practical Takeaways by Profile

For Long-Term BTC/ETH Accumulators

• Zoom out: If your horizon is 2030+, whether BTC bottoms at $82K or $75K matters far less than sticking to a disciplined DCA plan.
• On-chain backdrop: Whale accumulation, rising LTH holdings, and depressed MVRV all align with accumulation zones seen in prior cycles.
• Expect time, not instant V-shapes: Crypto can consolidate for months after big drops. Design your strategy for time in the market, not perfect entries.

For Short-Term Traders

• Key BTC levels:
  • Support: $80K–$82K (must hold for base case). Below that, $75K and then $70K.
  • Resistance: $90K, then $95K–$100K.
• Key ETH levels:
  • Support: $2,500–$2,700. Below that, $2,100.
  • Resistance: $3,000–$3,200, then $3,500.
• Watch derivatives:
  • Funding moving from deeply negative → neutral can precede squeezes.
  • OI rising with rising price = healthy. OI rising with falling price = risk of more downside.
• Risk management:
  • Use hard stop-losses.
  • Keep leverage ≤3x, ideally lower.
  • Size positions so a string of losses doesn’t knock you out of the game.

For AI Bot Users

Current regime: choppy downtrend with high volatility.

• Trend-following bots
  • Likely to suffer whipsaws and false breakouts.
• Grid & mean-reversion bots
  • Better suited, if you keep ranges reasonable (e.g., BTC $80K–$95K, ETH $2,500–$3,200) and size conservative.
• DCA bots
  • Still the cleanest fit for long-term BTC/ETH believers.

Bot rules to prioritize now:

• Leverage: Avoid or keep it very low. 1x (spot) → safest; 2–3x only after extensive testing.
• Max drawdown: Configure strict limits (e.g., auto-stop trading if portfolio drawdown exceeds 10–15%).
• Kill switch: Predefine clear conditions such as “shutdown all bots if BTC closes below $75K or ETH below $2,100”.
• Test first, scale later: If your strategy hasn’t been backtested through similar drawdowns and then paper-traded live, don’t deploy big capital now.

Bots are tools, not shortcuts. They’ll compound good processes and magnify bad ones.

6. Conclusion – Data, Not Drama

Week 3 of November 2025 was a week most crypto traders will remember:

• BTC tested the low-$80Ks.
• ETH revisited the high-$2,000s.
• ETF outflows, leverage flushes, and extreme fear all hit at once.

Big open questions:

• Does the Fed offer any relief in December, or double down on “higher for longer”?
• Do ETF flows stabilize and possibly flip back to net inflows?
• Do whales keep absorbing supply, or do long-term holders start reducing exposure?

You can’t control those. What you can control:

• Your position sizing
• Your leverage (or lack of it)
• Your stop-losses and maximum drawdown rules
• Whether you test strategies and bots before scaling up

No hopium. No doom. Just data, scenarios, and process. If you respect risk and treat this environment as a testing ground rather than a casino, the lessons from this week can compound far beyond one drawdown.